The future of Rwanda’s military deployment in northern Mozambique remains uncertain, as Kigali has tied the continuation of its mission in Cabo Delgado to securing sustained funding from the European Union.
President Paul Kagame has warned that Rwandan forces could be withdrawn as early as May, a move widely seen as leverage to pressure Brussels into providing long-term financial support for counterinsurgency operations.
The mission risks ending if stable funding is not secured, particularly given that the EU has provided around $46 million since 2022—significantly less than the total costs reportedly borne by Rwanda.
Security and Economic Calculations
A potential withdrawal would pose a major security setback for Mozambique, which still relies heavily on Rwandan forces, while also representing a geopolitical risk for Europe due to its strategic interests in the region.
Despite the threats, Kigali does not appear inclined toward a rapid exit. Its presence in Cabo Delgado is linked to long-term strategic interests, including the protection of major gas projects that have gradually resumed operations, as well as potential contracts for Rwandan private security firms with international companies.
Since 2021, more than 4,000 Rwandan troops have been deployed in the region at the request of the Mozambican government, contributing to improved security conditions through their field experience.
Political Pressure and Funding Challenges
At the same time, Rwanda faces increasing political pressure from the United States and the European Union over its role in the conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, complicating efforts to sustain EU funding.
Debates are ongoing within EU institutions over the future of support. Portuguese MEP Hélder Sousa Silva warned that cutting funding would be a serious mistake, urging a separation between the Mozambique mission and developments in eastern Congo.
He also cautioned that a European withdrawal could allow other global actors with competing agendas to fill the vacuum.
A Fragile Security Situation
On the ground, conditions in Cabo Delgado remain fragile, with Mozambican forces still unable to ensure stability on their own. Data from ACLED indicate ongoing violence, with thousands of casualties and numerous extremist-related incidents recorded since the insurgency began in 2017.
Leverage Rather Than Imminent Action
Overall, Rwanda’s withdrawal threat reflects a mix of financial, political, and security considerations. It appears to be more of a negotiating tool aimed at securing European funding than an imminent decision to pull out.
As instability persists, the future of Rwanda’s military presence in Mozambique will largely depend on reaching a broader financial and political settlement to sustain operations in Cabo Delgado.